Morgan Stanley In 2011, inflation picked up

 Central bank report said that as the G3 economies (U.S., EU and Japan) in the post-crisis period weak recovery of China's inflation weakened to play a strong role. Thus, while in 2009 for the super-strong monetary expansion to provide a strong impetus to inflation, but it did not lead to significant inflation. And from 2009 to 2010 caused massive lag effect of monetary expansion will continue to fuel inflation in the short term; At the same time, a weak inhibitory effect caused by external demand weakened.

Securities Market Weekly (Xinhua Hu Junying) Morgan Stanley economist Wang Qing, Greater China, said the latest report released in 2011 will usher in the Chinese economy is the rise of inflation a year, this was back in 2007 began to increase in long-term trend of inflation in the stage.

Outlook 2011, the report argues that the recent inflationary pressures for policy changes to solve will bring further growth in M1 money supply deceleration. M1 money supply with a positive gap between the long-term trend will begin to shrink in 2011, and because changes in money supply M1 and its consumer price index inflation lag of about two quarters, inflation pressures will began to weaken in mid-2011.

National Bureau of Statistics, CPI year on year increase accelerated from 2007 to 2008, a downward spiral into the second half of 2010, CPI rose a modest first half, second half to maintain a continuous increase in CPI increase to maintain the more than 3%, in November 2010 rose 5.1%.

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addition, rebalancing the global economy after the crisis, exchange rate adjustment will inevitably be resolved one way to global imbalances. Wang said that the RMB exchange rate to achieve substantive progress. Impede the full name of the Renminbi appreciation will lead to inflation problems sooner or later, causing far-reaching implications.

Wang estimated China's 2011 CPI will rise in the first quarter, and reached its peak in the year, that is an increase of 5.5%, after the slow start, reached at the end of the year rose 4.0%.

the longer term, the adjustment of China's economic growth drivers include the shift from the trade sector non-tradable sectors, which will lead to future long-term rise in inflation. Therefore, the even in 2011 after the start. , and once every five years. If this pattern remains unchanged, then the cycle of fixed asset investment in China will enter the next two years to early 2013 rise in stages. This increase in the coming years the growth of fixed asset investment upside risk to inflation rise will increase the pressure.