II, will be increasingly strong and forward to
four-expected analysis and landmark event - local financing platform, asset securitization
(than-expected analysis: a measure of market expectations for an event is reaction or overreaction, to grasp the market ahead of the expected correction in the course of the future, may have the opportunity or risk.)
especially after are, how to improve the proportion of direct financing and reduce the real economy relies on banks, has become a second important element in the Five-Year Plan. In the To improve the state-owned financial assets management system, improve local government financial management system. It should be said, this platform with the local financing are closely related.
if the next local state-owned assets high equity value will be enhanced, together with the inflation, the context of ample liquidity, the stock market played a place to absorb liquidity. So, there is a strong medium to long term the stock market's upward momentum. (Bandung Securities) < / p>
First, the securitization of state assets is a general trend
According to statistics, the reform of state-owned assets in Shanghai, after the curtain went up, A shares of the capital market, institutional investors have gradually important potential related companies.
Ai Baojun, vice mayor of Shanghai, has recently stressed Shanghai will be the enterprises as the mainstay, to promote the process of securitization of state assets, restructuring state-owned enterprises listed on the work of establishing coordination mechanisms, as soon as possible advantages of enterprises with listing requirements, and strive to achieve this year, 30% capital securities of the target. And at the end of 2009, Shanghai rate of capital securities only 25%.
(the core of the expected event: a certain period of time trends or hot spots within the market have a greater impact events. This event can be the focus of the current market, or possible future key events.)
from the local government perspective, we believe that the financial pressure due to local Forced local government wishes to promote the integration of state-owned assets has become more intense. now the biggest pressure facing local government is subject to specifications and local financing platform organize the local context of financial constraints, the local financing platform for the planning, a large number of local municipal projects will face the embarrassment of famished. And because the state regulation of the real estate industry, land subject to further financial pressure, local governments will inevitably be considered Other financial way out, then the effective integration of state-owned assets and the mitigation part of the problem.
We know that in the future the process of urbanization, local financing Platform will serve as an important financing role in the securitization of assets through the stock market, enhance the equity value should be a more feasible approach, especially in 2011 reduced the size of credit situations.
the future, in order to successfully complete the integration of state-owned assets related targets, while vigorously promoting the same time, market conditions will inevitably have a welcome. Even without the support of the real economy, we do not rule out the possibility of artificial bull market.
Shanghai State-owned securities, may be just the national state-owned asset securitization in microcosm. in accordance with the planning of the SASAC, a large number of state assets through the reorganization and integration of securities markets ultimately state-owned assets but the general trend of securitization. according to current planning perspective, the integration of the central objectives of state-owned assets of enterprises in the initial completion of the current local state-owned enterprises may be integrated into the peak period.
policy to promote state-owned assets in the securities context, the increasing willingness of local governments to promote a strong, local state-owned high integration trend seems more and more obvious. This behavior of the stock market is a big plus, while its development situation will and the concomitant stock market, the successful securitization of state assets have a bull market to carry out basic needs, while promoting the securitization of state assets will boost the formation of the bull market. Thus, of all investors will be ahead of the layout, ready to enjoy it big meals .
(spider diagram: impact of market structure on domestic and international macro-economic operation, political events, in accordance with the logic behind the relationship between the mesh structure chart. to from a macro perspective, the overall effective operation of the market analysis, market interpretation of the derivation.)
the successful securitization of state assets to achieve, but also need to cooperate and presided over the stock market, the most direct argument is the need for a bull market pattern.
recently made on the currency over the need to tighten liquidity, the market has become a major concern. But In fact, the currency used to measure M2/GDP ultra hair, there is a certain bias. China is affected by special factors high. First, the monetization process. China's economic reform and development of the main features, that is, from a planned economy to a market economic change. In the process, must be accompanied by the monetization of the economy was improved. Second, the impact of higher savings rate. Third, the indirect financing of the main bank's financial structure.
First of all, the local state-owned enterprises because most of the local government revenue, the local state-owned assets by integrating the benefits and value-added after in fact most of the benefits to the local state-owned enterprises of all. and in this context, the local government to promote local enterprises must integrate acquisitions greatly enhance the power.
Secondly, the local state-owned enterprises, determine its Integration of the pressure of the success or failure will happen to the local government. From past experience, the central policy-driven in the previous local state-owned enterprises regional integration process, the progress was not satisfactory, the source of the barrier is due to local interests. < / p>
three state-owned assets securitization, would be to force
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